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Silvereye Election Brief | 12 October 2026
National’s fiscal plan, released today, rules out tax cuts next term and returns to surplus in 2028/29. Health takes 88% of new spending, and cuts to foreign aid and welfare save about $1 billion.
The coalition is back in front in two of this week’s three polls, helped by NZ First’s rise and, in one, by Opportunity slipping below 5%. The third still has Labour, the Greens and Opportunity governing.
Competition policy has become common ground. Labour targeted banks and airlines this week, and National says its Foodstuffs split will rest on the Commerce Commission’s advice. Concentrated markets face scrutiny under either bloc.
Investment Boost is the clearest business tax divide. National would keep it and add no new taxes. Labour would scrap it and add a capital gains tax, though the parties dispute what scrapping it would raise.
NZ First is pressing its claim on a second-term coalition, polling ahead of ACT in two of the three polls and placing former National MPs and a former FMA chair high on its list.
Retirement and young people dominated the latest pledges. ACT’s fiscal plan would raise the super age to 67 by 2035, and National and Labour agreed to cross-party retirement talks. National, Labour and the Greens targeted school leaving, school lunches and youth jobs.
Polling Snapshot
Four polls this week, with different verdicts on who could govern.
Roy Morgan | Released 6 October National 31%, Labour 23.5%, Greens 16%, ACT 11%, NZ First 10% (+2.5 pp), Te Pāti Māori 2%. Opportunity and other parties outside Parliament took 6.5%, mostly Opportunity. Roy Morgan projects 62 of 120 seats for National, ACT and NZ First, a majority. Source: Roy Morgan
Taxpayers’ Union–Curia | Released 8 October National 28.5%, Labour 28.2% (+2.3 pp), Greens 13.3%, NZ First 12% (+3.6 pp), ACT 9.2% (−1.3 pp), Opportunity 4.8%, Te Pāti Māori 1.4%. With Opportunity out of Parliament, the coalition parties would hold 65 of 120 seats. Curia puts Opportunity’s chance of clearing 5% at 42%. Source: RNZ, Taxpayers’ Union
RNZ–Reid Research | Released 6 October Labour 30.8%, National 25.9% (−3.2 pp), Greens 14.8% (+4.6 pp), NZ First 10.6%, ACT 9%, Opportunity 5.5%, Te Pāti Māori 2%. Labour, the Greens and Opportunity would hold 61 seats, enough to govern; the coalition parties 56. Source: RNZ, interest.co.nz
1News–Verian | Released 13 October National 28% (−1 pp), Labour 28%, Greens 15% (−1 pp), ACT 10% (+1 pp), NZ First 10%, Opportunity 8% (+1 pp), Te Pāti Māori 0.4%. National, ACT and NZ First would hold 58 seats. Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori would hold 53 or 57, depending on how the Māori electorates fall. Either bloc would need Opportunity’s 10 MPs to govern. Hipkins has drawn level with Luxon as preferred Prime Minister, both on 20%. Source: 1News
This week’s four polls point to a closely balanced election. National averages 28.4%, narrowly ahead of Labour on 27.6%. The current coalition averages 48.8%, against 50.1% for Labour, the Greens, Opportunity and Te Pāti Māori combined. Assuming Opportunity backs Labour, these figures suggest roughly 60 seats for each side in a 120-seat Parliament. If Te Pāti Māori wins electorate seats, the left would edge to a bare majority. NZ First is essential to National’s prospects, while Opportunity’s ability to clear the 5% threshold could determine who governs.
Key Announcements
1.National’s fiscal plan puts debt and health before tax cuts (party proposal) Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and Finance Minister Nicola Willis released National’s fiscal plan today. It adopts Treasury’s forecasts: a $4 billion surplus in 2028/29, rising to $11.7 billion by 2030/31. Labour also targets surplus in 2028/29. Net core Crown debt would peak at 43.9% of GDP in 2027/28, then fall to 39.5% by 2030/31. National rules out new taxes and defers tax relief until surpluses grow. Willis said “now is not the time to cut taxes”. Health takes 88% of new spending, or $15.4 billion over four years, including $604 million more for Pharmac. National also funds a fourth year of health cost pressures, which Labour has deferred. Labour’s health total is still slightly higher, at $15.5 billion, because of new services such as free GP visits. Savings of about $1 billion come from foreign aid ($431 million) and welfare ($583 million). The plan also extends the current school lunch programme to 2029 and budgets for compulsory KiwiSaver from July 2028. Operating allowances stay at $2.4 billion a Budget, leaving $7.5 billion unallocated over four years. Capital allowances rise from $3.5 billion to $5 billion a Budget from 2029, with $14.2 billion still unallocated. Employers, health suppliers and infrastructure contractors are most affected. National
2.National targets red tape, jobseekers and school leavers (party proposals) National’s 47-point small business plan would keep Investment Boost, the 20% upfront deduction for new business assets. It would review the $60,000 GST registration threshold and fast-track minor employment disputes. Collective bargaining could begin only with the support of 10 employees or 20% of those covered, whichever is lower. The Council of Trade Unions says that would breach international law. Jobseeker beneficiaries would face random drug tests, and payments would fall after two years on the benefit. Prime Minister Christopher Luxon puts the savings at $583 million over four years. From 2028, students would also have to finish Year 11 before leaving school, keeping about 5,000 more a year in class. Employers, particularly capital-intensive firms, are most affected. See: interest.co.nz, NZCTU, interest.co.nz, 1News.
3. Labour targets banks, airlines and back-to-school costs (party proposals)Labour leader Chris Hipkins has promised to make big banks and airlines give smaller rivals fair access. Smaller payment providers would get access to essential banking infrastructure and a new e-money licence. A 24/7 real-time payments system would follow by 2030. Labour says it will intervene if the big banks refuse. Airlines would have to show all-in fares, and larger carriers would refund cancelled or significantly changed flights automatically. They would also report fares, costs and profits to the Commerce Commission. Air New Zealand says its fares already include GST and airport charges. Labour would also bring back its school lunch programme from 2028, with meals made locally. To cut uniform costs, schools would have to limit compulsory branded items, allow generic alternatives from retailers such as Kmart and The Warehouse, and publish costs. ACT, which proposed a similar policy in June, called the move “encouraging”. The four Australian-owned banks, which hold 84% of lending, Air New Zealand and branded uniform suppliers are most exposed.
4.Greens would guarantee work for unemployed young people (party proposal) The Greens would guarantee a pathway into work for 16- to 24-year-olds out of work for six months or more. The $4.86 billion, four-year plan would expand the Mayors’ Taskforce for Jobs to reach 32,000 young people. Work would come through iwi, businesses, the public sector and non-profits, in community services, infrastructure and nature restoration. Green co-leader Chlöe Swarbrick said, “You can’t punish people into ghost jobs.” Councils, iwi, non-profits and infrastructure contractors would be the main delivery partners. See: Green Party, Stuff, ODT.
5.ACT would raise the super age and uncap donation credits (party proposals) ACT’s fiscal plan would raise the NZ Super age by three months a year, reaching 67 by 2035. It would pause contributions to the NZ Super Fund and cut spending outside welfare and frontline services by $9.5 billion a year once fully in place. Disability benefits would require independent medical certification. ACT leader David Seymour would also remove the $33,333 annual cap on donation tax credits, set in Budget 2026. The Greens called the plan “welfare for the wealthiest”. Separately, Finance Minister Nicola Willis and Labour’s finance spokesperson Barbara Edmonds agreed to cross-party talks on retirement, with the pension age on the table. KiwiSaver providers, employers of older workers and charities reliant on major gifts are most affected. See: ACT, 1News, ACT, 1News, Green Party.
NZ First would make the temporary $50-a-week in-work tax credit boost permanent and lift it to $120. This formalises the pledge NZ First leader Winston Peters made at the Kingmakers’ Debate. The change is estimated to cost $500–600 million a year, with no funding source given. NZ First would also lift the minimum wage, now $23.95 an hour, by at least inflation each year for three years. That puts it at odds with ACT’s proposed three-year freeze. Employers of minimum-wage staff, particularly small businesses, would carry the cost. See: 1News, RNZ, Waatea News.
Campaign Developments
Hipkins was judged the winner of Tuesday’s TVNZ leaders’ debate by TVNZ’s panel of undecided voters (49% to 24%) and by Vote Compass’s survey of debate watchers (44% to 25%). Both leaders ruled out raising GST.
Luxon again ruled out working with the Opportunity party and also ACT’s proposed minimum wage freeze.
ACT leader David Seymour described a “dumpster fire of a policy debate”, criticising supermarket break-ups and the “heroic revenue assumptions” behind the Government’s own surplus forecast.
Willis called Labour’s fiscal plan “fraudulent” and said it overstated the revenue from scrapping Investment Boost by $2.2 billion; Labour rejected the claim but admitted a “small” $90 million error.
NZ First’s list released Wednesday ranks newcomers above four sitting MPs: former National MPs Alfred Ngaro (5th), Michael Laws (6th) and Harete Hipango-Brownlie (7th), former Financial Markets Authority chair Craig Stobo (8th) and former All Black Taine Randell (9th).
On Sunday, Te Pāti Māori named a single list candidate beyond its seven electorate candidates, reinforcing a candidate-vote strategy that could create an overhang.
Opportunity leader Qiulae Wong said threats to Te Tiriti in coalition talks would give her party “grounds to walk away”. See: RNZ, 1News, interest.co.nz.
Insights & Implications
New polls gave different predictions on who will govern after the election. In the two most recent polls, the split turned largely on one number - whether Opportunity reaches 5%. One has it just under the threshold and the coalition governing; the other has it just over and the left governing. With the gap inside the polls’ margin of error, the useful question for clients is what holds under either outcome.
The role of competition policy is front and centre, reflecting the cost-of-living crunch facing voters. The October Curia poll shows the cost of living remains the most important issue to voters at 33.2%. Health follows at 14.2% and the economy trails at 9.3%.
Regarding competition, parties have been busy announcing policy intentions. These include Labour’s plans for banks and airlines, National’s Foodstuffs split, NZ First’s push to separate electricity gentailers, and Opportunity’s demand for break-up powers. Whichever bloc governs, the Commerce Commission becomes a pivotal lever of economic policy. Both major parties want its findings to justify political and market intervention. What differs is who carries the cost. Under National, capital-intensive firms keep their tax relief and employers gain ground in bargaining. Under Labour, firms lose Investment Boost and employers in female-dominated sectors face renewed pay equity claims.
The fiscal plans set a tight envelope whoever wins. National and Labour share the same surplus year and the same $2.4 billion operating allowance per Budget. Both commit similar sums to health, leaving little new money elsewhere. Expect the costings to stay contested until polling day. No official body costs party policies, after ACT and NZ First blocked Willis’ proposed election costing unit last year. National’s plan sets aside $1.2 million for one at the next election, despite that opposition.
The coalition negotiation picture is shifting on both sides. On the right, NZ First’s rise would increase its power in a coalition, putting the Waitangi Tribunal, gentailers and small-business tax cuts near the top of the agenda. National is meanwhile campaigning against its own partners for centrist votes, and ACT is attacking the whole policy debate. Expect harder coalition talks than in 2023. On the left, Opportunity leader Quilae Wong’s Te Tiriti line makes any deal with a bloc containing NZ First and ACT difficult, whatever Luxon decides, and Te Pāti Māori’s candidate-vote strategy could add overhang seats to the left.
Signals to Watch
Four developments would show whether the analysis above is holding, and each can be seen before polling day.
a) If a second poll puts Opportunity below 5%: Curia’s did this week. A second reading would make a National-led government the likelier outcome, and Treaty settings a bigger risk for clients with iwi partnerships.
b) If NZ First stays ahead of ACT: it would be National’s largest partner in any second-term coalition, with first claim on portfolios and the 100-day programme.
c) If Luxon softens on Opportunity: he restated his rule-out on Tuesday. A shift would signal that National’s own numbers say it cannot win with ACT and NZ First alone.
Looking Ahead
Wednesday 14 October: NZ Herald Leaders’ Debate, Luxon v Hipkins, on Three and Newstalk ZB.
Tuesday 20 October: Stuff Leaders’ Debate, Luxon v Hipkins.
Wednesday 21 October: NZ Herald Powerbrokers’ Debate, with the leaders of parties likely to be in coalition talks.
Sunday 25 October: Enrolment closes at midnight. Voting in New Zealand opens the next day.
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