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Silvereye Election Debrief | 9 November 26
Updated: 13 hours ago
The overhang election - on a knife edge!'
Monday, 9 November 2026 | Preliminary results | Official results due Friday 27 November
In preliminary results, Labour won the party vote with 29.36% to National’s 29.21%, a difference of 3,650 votes. However, National won 42 electorates, seven more than its party vote % earns and an overhang of 7 seats. Te Pāti Māori won five seats on 0.57%, so an overhang of 4. These overhangs created a 131-seat Parliament. 66 seats are needed to govern.
Seats for National (42), ACT (13) and NZ First (12) hold 67 seats. Labour (36), the Greens (16), and Te Pāti Māori (5) hold 57 seats. If combined with Opportunity (7), this would take the combined seat count to 64 seats.
Together, the two major parties won 58.6%, their lowest combined share under MMP. Turnout fell to an estimated 74.6%, the lowest since 2011.
National’s reduced win
National support fell from 38% in 2023 to 29%, and no list MPs were elected, thus costing Nicola Willis, Paul Goldsmith and Speaker Gerry Brownlee their list-only seats. Number three in Cabinet, Chris Bishop, trails Labour’s Ginny Andersen by almost 900 votes in Hutt South. Bishop said a return was “unlikely”. With National's current numbers falling from 72% to 62% of the Coalition MP numbers, ACT and New Zealand First will be more demanding of cabinet positions, with ACT expected to try for Finance Minister.
Special votes to decide it
About 399,000 special votes, 14% of the total vote, will be counted by 27 November. Specials have cost National two seats at each of the last three elections. In a 131-seat Parliament, a two-seat swing would cost the Coalition its current majority. Prime Minister Christopher Luxon called the result “too close to call”, Peters urged supporters to avoid “hopeful speculation”, and Labour leader Chris Hipkins said, “every vote must now be counted”.
Seats to watch
There are four close electorates that could change hands on the special vote count. National and Te Pāti Māori both hold overhang seats. A change in any of the four seats below could materially alter the size of the seat count and makeup of the new Parliament.
These are as follows:
Wairarapa: Mike Butterick (National) leads by 139 votes over Kieran McAnulty (Labour). If McNulty wins Wairarapa, the coalition would lose its spare seat and fall to 66, with the overhang reduced by one to a 130-seat House (Butterick would lose his seat and leave Parliament).
Hamilton East: Ryan Hamilton (National) leads by 456 votes over Georgie Dansey (Labour). If Dansey won Hamilton East, the effect on the overhang would be the same as Wairarapa – a 130-seat House. (But Labour has further to make up). If both seats flipped, the coalition would still hold a majority - with 65 of 129 seats.
Te Tai Tokerau: Aperahama Edwards (Te Pāti Māori) leads Hūhana Lyndon (Greens), by 436 votes. A Green win would cost the left a seat. Te Pāti Māori would lose an overhang seat, and the Greens’ total would not change. In 2023, specials moved this seat more than 1,000 votes towards Te Pāti Māori.
Mt Roskill: Michael Wood (Labour) leads by 262 votes over Carlos Cheung (National), A National comeback would add a seat to the coalition. The House would also grow to 132, so the coalition would still have only one seat to spare. Specials have usually favoured the left.
Opportunity the new "king maker"?
Opportunity won 5.96% and seven seats. Leader Qiulae Wong has said she will talk to the largest party first, which on seat count is National, but says any deal would “entirely depend” on whether her bottom lines are met. If the Coalition looses its majority, Opportunity would hold the balance of power, and decide who the new Prime Minister and Government is.
The role of 'Caretaker Government during coalition negotiations
By constitutional convention, the current government is acting as a ‘caretaker government’ whilst a new government is being formed. This means the coalition government will not to take significant or controversial decisions, and to consult other parties before acting on anything significant that cannot wait.
Next Steps
Friday 27 November: Official results, after the 399,000 special votes have been counted.
Wednesday 2 December: Last day to apply for a recount. With such a close election, it is highly likely that recounts of electorate seats such as Wairarapa or Hamilton East will be applied for, which would delay the return of the writ.
Thursday 3 December: Return of the writ, with MPs declared elected.
Saturday 5 December: Ministers who lost their seats, including Finance Minister Nicola Willis, must leave office, so portfolios will need to be reallocated
Thursday 14 January 2027: under section 19 of the Constitution Act 1986, the latest date for the new Parliament to meet is six weeks after the writ’s return date. The law sets no deadline for forming a government, however parties would likely aim to have negotiations finalised prior to the House sitting so a vote of confidence could be passed. In 2023 negotiations took three weeks post official results being declared.
Preparing for Change - Schedule an Election Debrief
Whichever bloc governs, the next government’s agenda will be shaped far more by ACT and NZ First, or by Opportunity and the Greens if a left-block coalition does manage to gain a majority.
Whilst coalition agreements and ministerial portfolio allocations are still to be determined, for businesses engaging with government the intermediary period is an opportunity to clarify their priorities and asks of incoming ministers. Silvereye can assist here with a full election debrief and advice on engagement with incoming Ministers. For more information, email hello@silvereye.co.nz
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