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Silvereye Election Brief | 4 Nov 2026
The Week at a Glance
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon ends the campaign at odds with his coalition partners over split voting. ACT and NZ First approved an advertisement by former National and ACT leader Don Brash urging voters not to party-vote National.
The final 1News–Verian poll has National on 30% and Labour on 29%, with the coalition three seats short of a majority and Opportunity holding the balance. Overhangs on either side could still decide the result.
Whether the Opportunity Party does or does not make the 5% threshold could make the biggest difference to who becomes the next Government. If they make it, subject to the extent of the overhang, it is likely there would be a change of Government. If they don't make it, the status quo is more likely to remain.
Labour’s manifesto would review the electricity market within 100 days, drop the planned LNG import facility and reinstate the offshore oil and gas exploration ban.
Polling Snapshot
RNZ–Reid Research | Reported 28 October
National 24.8% (−1.1 pp), Labour 30.6% (−0.2 pp), Greens 14.5% (−0.3 pp), ACT 10.1% (+1.1 pp), NZ First 9.9% (−0.7 pp), Opportunity 7.2% (+1.7 pp), Te Pāti Māori 1.9% (−0.1 pp). RNZ projects 64 seats for Labour, the Greens and Opportunity and 54 for the coalition, before any overhang. Source: RNZ via ODT
1News–Verian | Reported 3 November
National 30% (+1 pp), Labour 29% (+2 pp), Greens 16% (+1 pp), ACT 10% (−2 pp), NZ First 8% (−2 pp), Opportunity 6%, Te Pāti Māori 0.4% (+0.3 pp). On 1News’ modelling, the coalition would win 58 seats, three short of a majority, with Opportunity’s seven seats holding the balance. National’s vote earns it 36 seats, so overhang seats could still change the outcome. Source: 1News
Ipsos Issues Monitor | Reported 2 November
The Ipsos issues monitor poll was also released this week. Voters’ top concerns are the cost of living (64%), healthcare (45%), fuel prices (31%, +14 pp), the economy (30%) and unemployment (19%). Labour is rated more capable than National on all five, including the cost of living (38% to 24%), healthcare (42% to 21%) and the economy (34% to 29%). Source: 1News
Across the five most recent polls, counting only the latest from each pollster, Labour averages 29.1% and National 27.8%. The coalition averages 47.6%, against 51.0% for Labour, the Greens, Opportunity and Te Pāti Māori combined. 1News’ analysis says National would need to lose eight electorates to avoid an overhang. It also says Te Pāti Māori is “almost certain” to create an overhang of four or five seats. Source: 1News
Key Announcements:
1. Reserve Bank holds OCR in surprise split (central bank decision)
The Reserve Bank held the OCR at 2.75%, when bank economists and markets had expected a rise to 3%. The Monetary Policy Committee split 4–3: Governor Anna Breman and three others voted to hold, while three members wanted an immediate rise. The committee said “tighter monetary policy is likely to be required”, with inflation of 3.7% in the September quarter forecast to reach 4.4% in the December quarter. The New Zealand dollar fell about 1% against the Australian dollar. Borrowers avoid a rise during the campaign, exporters gain from the weaker dollar, and the next decision is due on 9 December. See: interest.co.nz, RNZ
2. Labour would overhaul the electricity market and drop LNG (party proposal)
Labour’s manifesto would begin a review of the electricity market’s structure within 100 days and introduce legislation within six months. The Government’s proposed LNG import facility would not proceed, and Labour would reinstate the ban on offshore oil and gas exploration. It would instead work with industry to increase bioenergy, offshore wind and geothermal generation. National campaign chair Simeon Brown said the manifesto confirmed a “higher-tax agenda”. Generator-retailers, gas users, energy-intensive industries and LNG proponents are most affected. See: RNZ via ODT, National.
3. NZ First would scrap frigates for drones (party proposal)
NZ First would cancel the Navy’s replacement frigates, reported at $6–8 billion, and invest instead in drones, munitions and a second amphibious ship, Newsroom reports. Candidate and former defence minister Ron Mark confirmed the position. Peters called NZ First’s plan to cut company tax to 20% for firms with turnover under $30 million “just the opening gambit”, saying it should go much further. At TVNZ’s Kaupapa Māori Debate, deputy leader Shane Jones defended the party’s plan to abolish the Waitangi Tribunal. Defence suppliers, shipbuilders and small and medium businesses are most affected. See: Newsroom, interest.co.nz
Campaign Developments
Luxon and the split vote: Brash’s full-page Herald advertisement told right-leaning voters: “Want to keep the Left out of government? Then DO NOT party vote National!” ACT and NZ First approved it, ACT on the condition that the campaign backed its candidates in Epsom and Tāmaki. Luxon said on Friday it was “up to citizens in a democracy” how they voted, but by Sunday was warning that people were “trying to confuse you”. Brash accused him of “misleading the public”, and NZ First leader Winston Peters said party-voting National was “wasting your vote”. Peters also endorsed Transport Minister Chris Bishop over NZ First’s own Hutt South candidate. Former Prime Minister Sir John Key backed senior minister Paul Goldsmith against ACT leader David Seymour in Epsom.
Red lines: Opportunity leader Qiulae Wong said ruling out NZ First had become a “serious consideration”, and Peters called Opportunity “pinko communists”. Wong says Opportunity will still talk first to the party that wins the most seats.
Turnout: By 2 November, 913,762 people had voted, about 200,000 more than at the same stage in 2023. Provisional enrolment closed at 93.6%, below 2023’s 94.7%. See: The Spinoff, 1News
Insights & Implications
Luxon has spent the final week fighting his own side for the party vote, and the overhang that could save his Government would hollow out his party. Without Opportunity, which Luxon has ruled out, the coalition’s clearest route to a majority is a National overhang. In that case, votes that move from National to ACT or NZ First add seats to the coalition without costing National any. But an overhang, the first by a major party under MMP, would leave National with no list MPs, including list-only Finance Minister Nicola Willis.
In effect, Luxon is choosing a stronger National over a bigger coalition. The final poll, with National up and both partners down, suggests his warnings are landing. Yet each point National regains shrinks the overhang the coalition may need. By approving Brash’s advertisement, ACT and NZ First have shown they are already bargaining, and Seymour says it is “very possible” he will seek the finance portfolio.
A Labour-led government would need Opportunity, whose bottom lines include stronger Commerce Commission powers and a cap on political donations. Together with Labour’s electricity reforms, that points to tougher regulation of concentrated markets.
Either way, a result decided by overhang seats could face questions about its mandate.
Signals to Watch
a) If National’s party vote is nearer RNZ–Reid’s 24.8% than 1News–Verian’s 30% while ACT and NZ First hold up: the split vote has worked, and the partners will bargain from strength.
b) If National takes Labour’s marginal seats: each one adds a seat to National’s overhang. Watch Mt Albert (won by 18 votes in 2023), Nelson (26 votes) and Wigram (1,179 votes, now an open seat). Labour wins in Hutt South or the new Waitākere seat would each cut the overhang by one.
c) If Opportunity is near 5% in the preliminary count: the result may not be settled until the official count on 27 November. Below 5%, its wasted votes could give the coalition a majority without an overhang.
d) A final Curia – Taxpayer’s Union poll is expected to come out later this week, and will give further indications of polling trends with the election just days away.
Looking Ahead
Thursday 5 November, 7pm: The People’s Debate on TVNZ 1 and RNZ, with all seven parties.
Saturday 7 November: Election Day. Voting closes at 7pm, and preliminary results follow.
Friday 27 November: Official results, including special votes.
Thursday 3 December: Return of the writ.
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