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Silvereye Election Brief | 5 October 2026
The Week at a Glance
The fiscal backdrop has improved, but not the room to spend. Treasury’s pre-election forecasts show smaller deficits and $15 billion less borrowing, driven mostly by inflation lifting the tax take.
The Greens hit a record 16% as National and Labour slipped to 28% each. On the latest numbers, Opportunity at 6% would hold the balance of power.
Opportunity has set out what it would want in coalition talks. Its five bottom lines include stronger concentrated market powers, donations, health, and environment.
The coalition partners split openly over strategic voting. Following the Te Pati Maori strategy could see more votes for the centre-right, but an overhang could see list MPs Nicola Willis, Paul Goldsmith, Gerry Brownlee and potentially others out of Parliament.
Polling Snapshot
1News–Verian | Published 28 September
*The equivalent polling was the 1News–Verian poll at approximately the same stage in the 2023 election cycle, taken in September 2023.
On 1News–Verian’s projection, National, ACT and NZ First would hold 59 seats, against 65 for Labour, the Greens, Te Pāti Māori, the Te Tai Tokerau Party and Opportunity in an overhang Parliament. The right still leads the left by three points, but not by enough for a majority, while Opportunity stays above 5%.
Key Announcements:
1.Treasury forecasts earlier recovery but no room to spend (official forecast) On Tuesday 29 September, the Pre-election Economic and Fiscal Update forecast a $6.8 billion deficit for 2026/27, down from $11.4 billion at the Budget, and a $4 billion surplus in 2028/29. Net debt peaks at 43.9% of GDP in 2028. Tax revenue was revised up $11.4 billion over four years, largely due to persistent inflation, and Treasury says risks lean towards weaker growth and higher inflation. Finance Minister Nicola Willis said the numbers are not a green light to open the chequebook. See: RNZ, Stuff.
2.NZ First would abolish the Waitangi Tribunal within 100 days (party proposal) On Saturday 26 September, NZ First said it would legislate within 100 days of the election to replace the Waitangi Tribunal with a Treaty of Waitangi Completion Commission to finalise pre-2008 claims and then close. Contemporary claims would move to the Ministry of Māori Development. ACT welcomed the policy as near-identical to its own. Projects built on iwi partnerships in resources, infrastructure and the primary sector are most exposed. See: RNZ, NZ First.
3.Opportunity sets out its terms for coalition talks (coalition position) On Tuesday 29 September, Opportunity leader Qiulae Wong released five bottom lines for any coalition or confidence-and-supply deal: stronger Commerce Commission powers over concentrated markets, lobbying rules and a donations cap, a 10-year health plan, a staged phase-out of bottom trawling, and a recommitment to the Paris Agreement. Its land value tax and universal basic income are not on the list. See: RNZ, Opportunity.
4.Labour would reinstate pay equity within 100 days, at a cost unions put above $13 billion (party proposal) Labour leader Chris Hipkins has promised to reverse last year's urgent changes to the Equal Pay Act within his first 100 days as Prime Minister. Public Service Association national secretary Fleur Fitzsimons says that would cost at least $12.8 billion over four years, and likely more than $13 billion, above the $11 billion Willis put on it in June. About 180,000 workers had claims in train, and unions say care and support workers are owed rises of 24% to 38%. Labour has not said how it would pay for it as it does not want to “declare its hand in a negotiation”. Labour also promised a "fair go law" on Thursday 1 October to deal with surprise fees, "worthless" insurance and subscriptions that are difficult to cancel, which would bring new conduct rules for telcos, insurers, subscription businesses and retailers if it proceeds. See: Stuff, RNZ, 1News.
5.ACT would remove tax on KiwiSaver earnings and replace government contributions (party proposal) On Sunday 4 October, at ACT's campaign launch, leader David Seymour promised to remove tax on KiwiSaver investment earnings and end government contributions for members who receive employer contributions. ACT estimates the cost at about $1 billion a year in revenue, with funding to be set out in its Alternative Budget, and says a 25-year-old nurse on $100,000 would have $217,366 more by 65. Labour leader Chris Hipkins says it would take the government top-up from minimum contributors to give the biggest tax cut to the wealthiest. It cuts across Labour's and National's plans to lift contributions to 6% by 2032, which Seymour opposes as compulsory. KiwiSaver providers and employers are most exposed. ACT will also end the KiwiSaver government contribution for members receiving employer contributions. See: Stuff, 1News.
6.Greens would run intercity passenger rail between major cities (party proposal) On Saturday 3 October, the Greens announced an Auckland–Wellington overnight sleeper service, passenger rail between Christchurch and Dunedin, and an electrified, extended Te Huia route to Tauranga, as part of a wider transport plan. KiwiRail and the regional towns on these routes would be most affected. See: Green Party.
Campaign Developments
·National launched with a 10-point pledge card, and former Prime Minister Sir John Key warned supporters against split voting.
·On Monday 28 September, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon called strategic voting an “insanely stupid idea”; ACT leader David Seymour replied that both votes belong to the voter, and NZ First leader Winston Peters called the warning “very, very ill-informed”.
·Meanwhile, the Greens have signalled they would seek high-profile portfolios, and Labour leader Chris Hipkins again ruled out Chlöe Swarbrick as Finance Minister. Willis says Labour’s unfunded “hidden bill” has reached $18.8 billion, which Labour disputes. See: RNZ, Newstalk ZB.
·Parliament was dissolved on Thursday 1 October. That night's Press Kingmakers' Debate was arguably contained; the minor-party leaders largely sidestepped coalition questions and drew no new red lines. Seymour said he now trusts Peters, who did not reciprocate.
·Peters pledged to lift Working for Families tax credits by $120 a week, which Seymour costed at $500–600 million a year on top of the $50 fuel boost. Swarbrick backed a bipartisan infrastructure pipeline. See: RNZ, Newstalk ZB, 1News, The Spinoff.
·A campaign promoted by Harry Mowbray, father of the Zuru toy company siblings, urges right-leaning voters to give National the electorate vote and ACT or NZ First the party vote, aiming to create overhang seats: extra seats added to Parliament when a party wins more electorates than its party vote entitles it to. It is suggested this increases the numbers to retain the current coalition. Hipkins called it "an absolute rort". See: The Post, Democracy Project.
Looking Ahead
Tuesday 6 October: TVNZ Leaders’ Debate. Luxon and Hipkins go head-to-head at 7pm.
Wednesday 7 October: NZ First announces its party list rankings. Expected to be heavily contested.
Thursday 8 October: Nominations close at noon.
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